Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x546a…1dd1 crypto 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+3%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate61%53W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$2
other 16% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -4.1% -13.2% 61% 49% -9.5%
≤30d 87 -4.1% -13.2% 61% 49% -9.5%
≤90d 87 -4.1% -13.2% 61% 49% -9.5%
all 87 -4.1% -13.2% 61% 49% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 49% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 30% -18.2%
15% -29.1% 22% -26.1%
20% -36.1% 13% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses53 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $33 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $1 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $9 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 277 history records