Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:53:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5467…851d world 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+0%) realized +$44 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%53W / 58L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$8
14 days+$9
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$71
sports 24% −$3
other 22% −$8
politics 8% −$15
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.9% -12.2% 44% 11% -10.0%
≤30d 36 +1.0% -8.6% 53% 8% -8.7%
≤90d 47 +0.1% -9.4% 43% 6% -9.2%
all 111 -0.5% -10.0% 48% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 4% -9.3%
10% -18.6% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.5% 1% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$218
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses53 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage467d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $215 $217 +$2 (+1%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $24 +$5 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $55 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $11 −$5 -44%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $81 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $458 +$2 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $233 −$10 -4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $208 +$3 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $234 −$2 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $384 +$9 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $455 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $250 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $194 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $116 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $413 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $213 +$4 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $190 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $436 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $224 +$3 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $217 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $507 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $359 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $251 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $211 +$6 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $129 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $193 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $425 −$2 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $63 −$11 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $214 −$18 -8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $182 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $435 +$10 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $243 +$9 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $242 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $132 +$71 +54%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $15 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $11 −$2 -19%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $111 +$3 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $892 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $659 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $1,001 −$18 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $23 −$2 -9%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,002 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $913 −$3 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $1,005 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be 70 or higher? Aug 10 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $69 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $146 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $18 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $24 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $15 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $55 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $81 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $81 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $61 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $162 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $149 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $74 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $201 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $22 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $233 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $233 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $40 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $13 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $178 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $103 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $100 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $32 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $76 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.63 · official $217.35 (match) · 421 history records