Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:46:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
54 0x5465…ba43 other 389 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$715 (-2%) realized −$787 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%273W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$532
14 days−$400
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$572
sports 30% −$1,243
world 2% −$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -9.6% -18.2% 73% 73% -20.9%
≤30d 44 -0.1% -9.6% 73% 73% -11.1%
≤90d 347 -4.5% -13.6% 67% 67% -12.0%
all 388 -0.1% -9.6% 70% 70% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 70% -11.9%
10% -18.3% 61% -20.4%
15% -26.2% 34% -28.1%
20% -33.4% 13% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$87 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$380
Realized−$787
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses273 / 115
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions1
Markets (closed)388 / 389
History coverage138d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 388 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 81¢ 100¢ $308 $380 +$72 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$52 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $302 +$60 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $302 +$73 +24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $301 +$48 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $302 +$78 +26%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $301 +$56 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 16 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 16 $302 −$302 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $201 +$52 +26%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$49 +24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $301 +$56 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $301 +$56 +18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $303 +$132 +44%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Girona FC vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5 May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 31 $151 +$45 +30%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 27 $50 +$16 +32%
Will US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? May 27 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $51 +$29 +57%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 27 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $76 +$26 +34%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $76 +$94 +124%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $151 +$26 +17%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 24 $50 +$15 +29%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? May 24 $50 +$19 +38%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? May 24 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 +$33 +32%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 21 $101 +$23 +23%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $201 +$34 +17%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $50 +$15 +29%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 May 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $65 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $244 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 77¢ $302 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $301 24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $302 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $302 41h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $301 47h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $302 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 84¢ $301 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $201 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $201 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $202 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $302 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $302 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $301 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $301 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $302 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $303 8d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 63¢ $202 21d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 77¢ $151 23d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 63¢ $51 27d
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 85¢ $151 27d
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 27d
Will US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $50 27d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 44¢ $25 27d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 74¢ $25 27d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 72¢ $25 27d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 44¢ $51 27d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 27d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 67¢ $50 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.81 · official $379.81 (match) · 794 history records