Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5464…88db sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+8%) realized +$29 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$3
other 11% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 33% -0.6%
≤30d 6 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 33% -0.6%
≤90d 6 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 33% -0.6%
all 6 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 33% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 33% -0.6%
10% -26.6% 0% -10.1%
15% -33.7% 0% -18.8%
20% -40.2% 0% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×10.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.88 per $1 lost it wins $10.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Inner Circle Esports 60¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Jun 25 $34 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $18 +$2 +9%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $51 +$9 +17%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $30 +$4 +15%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 54¢ $13 49m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 60¢ $22 58m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 60¢ $8 59m
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports - SELL Betclic Apogee Esports 67¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports - BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 67¢ $34 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $30 18h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $51 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 19h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ SELL Keyd 59¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Keyd 56¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ SELL Keyd 50¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Keyd 51¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 17 history records