Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
54 0x5463…254f other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$93 (-35%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$57
economics 22% −$60
crypto 19% −$50
sports 10% −$5
world 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 38% +21.6%
≤30d 8 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 38% +21.6%
≤90d 8 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 38% +21.6%
all 11 -32.6% -39.1% 36% 27% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.1% 27% -30.7%
10% -44.9% 18% -37.4%
15% -50.2% 18% -43.4%
20% -55.1% 18% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$22 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage191d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$32 +155%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$5 +17%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 +$51 +125%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 08 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jason Koon win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Dec 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $35 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 58¢ $50 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $21 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $42 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 3d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 6¢ $60 191d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 191d
Will Jason Koon win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 191d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records