Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5460…be6f other 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$215 (+4%) realized +$212 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate42%73W / 101L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$63
14 days+$63
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 28% +$319
sports 22% −$143
politics 18% +$98
other 14% −$134
tech 8% +$77
world 7% +$9
economics 2% −$6
culture 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -54.8% -59.1% 38% 25% +0.9%
≤30d 13 -49.5% -54.4% 31% 23% -32.7%
≤90d 13 -49.5% -54.4% 31% 23% -32.7%
all 174 -23.0% -30.4% 42% 28% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 28% -6.2%
10% -37.0% 21% -15.2%
15% -43.1% 16% -23.4%
20% -48.7% 11% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$212
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses73 / 101
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)174 / 182
History coverage590d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 71¢ 66¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 12¢ 16¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+38%)
Will Lisandro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Yes 70¢ 78¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? No 16¢ 17¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+6%)
Will Switzerland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+71%)
Will Nico Paz be in Argentina's Starting 11? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will N'Golo Kanté be in France's Starting 11? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-73%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joan Garcia be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will David Raya be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donyell Malen be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Eric García be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $277 +$14 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $245 +$55 +22%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 31 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 31 $275 −$275 -100%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025 May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 31 $20 +$39 +194%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? Feb 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Feb 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina Jan 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $3 +$30 +1013%
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Nov 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04? Oct 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference? Sep 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference? Sep 17 $7 +$13 +194%
Will Regis Le Bri be the first EPL manager fired? Sep 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Andoni Iraola be the first EPL manager fired? Sep 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Unai Emery be the first EPL manager fired? Sep 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will Thomas Frank be the first EPL manager fired? Sep 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Daniel Farke be the first EPL manager fired? Sep 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Enzo Maresca be the first EPL manager fired? Sep 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fabian Hurzeler be the first EPL manager fired? Sep 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scott Parker be the first EPL manager fired? Sep 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conferenc Sep 17 $216 +$117 +54%
Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference? Sep 17 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Marco Silva be the first EPL manager fired? Sep 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will David Moyes be the first EPL manager fired? Sep 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Eddie Howe be the first EPL manager fired? Sep 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conferenc Sep 17 $57 +$11 +20%
Will Oliver Glasner be the first EPL manager fired? Sep 01 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Vitor Pereira be the first EPL manager fired? Aug 23 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Ruben Amorim be the first EPL manager fired? Aug 23 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 19 $134 +$53 +39%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 8-14? Jul 13 $33 +$3 +10%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 09 $10 $0 -4%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? Jul 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lisandro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 1h
Will Donyell Malen be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 2d
Will Nico Paz be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Joan Garcia be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will David Raya be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Eric García be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will N'Golo Kanté be in France's Starting 11? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will N'Golo Kanté be in France's Starting 11? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 10¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the Wo BUY No 71¢ $50 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $291 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $277 2d
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 16¢ $8 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $14 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 81¢ $245 5d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 BUY Yes 34¢ $20 60d
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t BUY Yes 17¢ $10 60d
Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025 BUY Yes 6¢ $10 60d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY No 8¢ $2 129d
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 134d
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina BUY Sabalenka 16¢ $3 136d
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina BUY Pegula 7¢ $3 138d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? SELL Yes 80¢ $24 141d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 141d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 141d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 189d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.52 · official $98.52 (match) · 1176 history records