Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
54 0x5460…8724 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$238 (-4%) realized −$232 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate94%44W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$107
14 days−$107
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$55
world 7% +$13
sports 4% −$213
crypto 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +1.2% -8.5% 96% 11% -11.3%
≤30d 45 +1.2% -8.5% 96% 11% -11.3%
≤90d 47 -0.8% -10.3% 94% 11% -13.4%
all 47 -0.8% -10.3% 94% 11% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 11% -13.4%
10% -18.9% 4% -21.7%
15% -26.7% 0% -29.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$156 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$232
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses44 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage52d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? No 89¢ 73¢ $32 $26 −$6 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $27 +$3 +10%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 +$3 +16%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $17 +$5 +27%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $108 −$108 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $105 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $128 +$6 +5%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $124 +$4 +3%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $121 +$4 +3%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $120 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $113 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $112 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $106 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $78 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $75 +$3 +4%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $71 +$4 +5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $69 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $66 +$3 +4%
Exact Score: Athletic Club 0 - 2 Goiás EC? Jun 14 $64 +$3 +4%
Exact Score: São Bernardo FC 0 - 1 SC Recife? Jun 14 $58 +$6 +10%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $214 −$213 -99%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $208 +$6 +3%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $198 +$10 +5%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $190 +$7 +4%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $182 +$8 +4%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $178 +$4 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $165 +$14 +8%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $192 +$10 +5%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $188 +$4 +2%
Exact Score: CD Coquimbo Unido 0 - 1 O'Higgins FC? Jun 13 $178 +$11 +6%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $173 +$5 +3%
Exact Score: Audax CS Italiano 0 - 1 CD La Serena? Jun 13 $169 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $211 +$4 +2%
Exact Score: OC Safi 3 - 0 Kawkab AC? Jun 12 $204 +$8 +4%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $197 +$7 +3%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $186 +$11 +6%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $181 +$5 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $169 +$12 +7%
Exact Score: Bolivia 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 11 $164 +$5 +3%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Paris FC 0 - 1 Lille OSC? Apr 26 $147 −$146 -100%
Exact Score: Real Oviedo 2 - 1 Elche CF? Apr 26 $137 +$10 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 89¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 94¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 99¢ $30 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 90¢ $27 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 99¢ $27 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 88¢ $25 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $25 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 86¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 78¢ $17 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $17 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY No 89¢ $15 8h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL No 0¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 98¢ $108 8h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $107 8h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 98¢ $105 9h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 99¢ $106 9h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $100 11h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? SELL No 100¢ $134 26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? BUY No 95¢ $128 26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? SELL No 100¢ $128 26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY No 97¢ $124 27h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? SELL No 100¢ $125 27h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? BUY No 97¢ $121 29h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? SELL No 100¢ $121 29h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? BUY No 99¢ $120 29h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? SELL No 100¢ $119 29h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 94¢ $113 31h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 98¢ $112 32h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? SELL No 100¢ $111 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.11 · official $25.75 (match) · 96 history records