Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x5460…15b5
sports · 396 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$336 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$385 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$385
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses166 / 219
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions7
Markets (closed)385 / 396
History coverage158d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 7 History 385 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$65
14 days+$50
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? No 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner G2 Esports 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$25 +1843%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 +$25 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 +$8 +414%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +248%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$11 +206%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +80%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5 +$3 +67%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$7 +140%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $7 +$3 +46%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 10 $21 +$7 +32%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$5 +48%
France leading at halftime? Jun 09 $5 +$14 +276%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 09 $11 +$6 +49%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $10 −$3 -27%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
England leading at halftime? Jun 06 $5 +$7 +143%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 $0 +23%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $2 +$9 +430%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $14 +$2 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 +$4 +71%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 5.5 May 31 $25 +$4 +14%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 4.5 May 31 $20 +$6 +28%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - May 31 $30 +$25 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qu May 31 $5 +$5 +100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $5 +$12 +238%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: All Gamers vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner May 30 $15 +$6 +40%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% −$175
other 17% −$212
crypto 0% −$6
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 45¢ $10 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 31¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $2 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 AN BUY 31¢ $6 4h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 23h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $40 23h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 23h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 23h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 23h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 53¢ $10 26h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 59¢ $10 26h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 17¢ $5 26h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 51¢ $5 27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 14¢ $2 28h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 3¢ $5 32h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 32h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND W BUY 40¢ $4 38h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 41h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 26¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 20¢ $4 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3 BUY 55¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 59¢ $5 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 29¢ $3 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 14¢ $3 3d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 29¢ $2 4d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 57¢ $8 4d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 41¢ $5 4d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Global Esports 68¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +113.1% +92.8% 60% 56% +21.0%
≤30d 110 +18.9% +7.6% 50% 46% -9.2%
≤90d 276 -3.9% -13.0% 43% 40% -19.2%
all 385 -6.5% -15.4% 43% 41% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 41% -15.4%
10% -23.5% 37% -23.5%
15% -30.9% 33% -30.9%
20% -37.6% 30% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.86 · official $24.86 · 1047 history records