Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
54 0x545c…1dd0 other 99 markets active 4d ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$23
politics 25% −$4
sports 5% −$33
economics 3% −$1
world 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -5.7% -14.7% 11% 8% -9.9%
all 98 -5.7% -14.7% 11% 8% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 8% -9.9%
10% -22.8% 8% -18.5%
15% -30.3% 8% -26.4%
20% -37.1% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 87
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage81d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 27 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $177 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $346 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $183 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $184 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $171 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $177 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $323 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $351 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $173 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $360 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $392 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $188 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $185 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $324 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $368 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $394 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $182 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $183 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $340 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 13 $185 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $181 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $357 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $175 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 11 $189 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $317 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $355 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 10 $348 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $365 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $473 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 09 $177 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $69 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 11d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 12d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 12d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $32 22d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $32 22d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 23d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $41 23d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $41 23d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $38 26d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $38 26d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 27d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 28d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 29d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 29d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $78 29d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $38 30d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $38 30d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $171 33d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $172 33d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $177 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.99 · official $68.99 (match) · 270 history records