Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x545a…bff5 sports 253 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$165 (-1%) realized −$166 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate52%129W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$28
14 days+$40
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$155
crypto 23% −$213
other 8% −$120
finance 0% −$8
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -8.2% -16.9% 56% 22% -5.3%
≤30d 23 +4.7% -5.3% 65% 35% -1.9%
≤90d 87 -9.5% -18.1% 55% 34% -10.3%
all 250 -0.1% -9.6% 52% 30% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 30% -10.7%
10% -18.2% 21% -19.3%
15% -26.1% 19% -27.1%
20% -33.4% 14% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$166
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses129 / 121
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)250 / 253
History coverage116d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 90¢ 91¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $5 −$1 -14%
Will England win? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -31%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $1 $0 -17%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $213 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $50 +$10 +20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $5 −$3 -56%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $163 +$11 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -10%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will India win? Jun 08 $50 +$7 +13%
Will England win? Jun 07 $10 +$11 +109%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $143 +$14 +10%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $15 $0 -2%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $123 +$18 +14%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $109 +$13 +12%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $110 +$5 +5%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $10 +$8 +79%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $90 +$5 +6%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $15 +$6 +38%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $78 +$6 +7%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $76 +$1 +2%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $70 +$6 +9%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $65 +$3 +4%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $60 +$7 +12%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $58 +$3 +5%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 23 $15 −$10 -66%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 23 $72 −$2 -3%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals Apr 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians Apr 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 20 $49 +$30 +62%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 19 $84 −$23 -27%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 18 $91 −$64 -70%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 18 $30 −$21 -69%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 17 $76 +$15 +20%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 16 $40 +$4 +11%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 15 $20 +$6 +32%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $61 +$11 +19%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 12 $35 +$19 +55%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Gujarat Titans Apr 12 $10 +$9 +86%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 11 $35 −$3 -7%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 11 $29 +$25 +84%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $47 −$9 -18%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 09 $38 −$10 -26%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 08 $180 −$120 -67%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 07 $181 −$16 -9%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Punjab Kings Apr 06 $55 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 90¢ $50 1h
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 17h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 37¢ $4 23h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 42¢ $5 25h
Will England win? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 41h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $55 2d
Will England win? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 90¢ $50 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 7¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 8¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 100¢ $188 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 97¢ $183 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 71¢ $25 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 85¢ $30 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL India 100¢ $60 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 84¢ $25 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Bangladesh 100¢ $109 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 82¢ $25 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 92¢ $100 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 24¢ $2 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 53¢ $5 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 20¢ $2 6d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $174 6d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 96¢ $138 6d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 81¢ $25 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 8d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 51¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.09 · official $151.09 (match) · 656 history records