Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x545a…32c3 other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$77 (+6%) realized +$92 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate74%23W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$53
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$138
world 35% −$37
politics 19% −$15
tech 8% −$61
crypto 1% −$10
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +29.1% +16.8% 80% 80% +29.9%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 62% 62% -12.8%
≤90d 16 -1.6% -11.0% 62% 62% -8.7%
all 31 +7.9% -2.4% 74% 55% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 55% -4.5%
10% -11.7% 32% -13.6%
15% -20.2% 26% -21.9%
20% -28.1% 19% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$18 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses23 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)31 / 50
History coverage120d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 74¢ 86¢ $108 $125 +$17 (+16%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $110 $90 −$20 (-18%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 87¢ 78¢ $70 $63 −$7 (-9%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+6%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 44¢ 37¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-16%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 40¢ 29¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 53¢ 19¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $16 −$14 -92%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $21 −$5 -25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Military action against Iran ends by April 16, 2026? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? Apr 08 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $50 +$9 +18%
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Mar 06 $20 +$4 +20%
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? Mar 05 $10 +$1 +11%
Will "Trump" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the Mar 03 $5 +$1 +27%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $65 −$60 -92%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 3-9? Mar 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Enemy" 3+ times during Medal of Honor ceremony on Marc Mar 02 $10 $0 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Mar 01 $10 +$2 +23%
Will "Iran" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the w Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Iran" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Feb 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will "Trump" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Feb 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Feb 28 $20 +$68 +338%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 24 $60 +$10 +16%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Feb 23 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Norway win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $20 $0 +1%
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Feb 23 $45 +$4 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $40 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $40 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $27 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 22h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 47h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 76¢ $14 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $11 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $20 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $553.77 · official $553.77 (match) · 221 history records