Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:07:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
54 0x5458…5dd8 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$405 (+10%) realized +$895 · open −$490
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +36.2% +23.2% 86% 43% +3.2%
≤30d 14 +36.2% +23.2% 86% 43% +3.2%
≤90d 14 +36.2% +23.2% 86% 43% +3.2%
all 14 +36.2% +23.2% 86% 43% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.2% 43% +3.2%
10% +11.4% 36% -6.6%
15% +0.6% 21% -15.7%
20% -9.2% 21% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +91% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$174 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$895
Unrealized−$490
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 3¢ $519 $28 −$490 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $496 +$30 +6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $304 −$300 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 −$48 -96%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $501 +$30 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $201 +$31 +16%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $501 +$48 +10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $201 +$62 +31%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $201 +$55 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $206 +$17 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$28 +139%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $401 +$20 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 +$87 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $99 +$363 +365%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $526 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $527 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $496 3h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $304 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over 1¢ $1 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $50 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $531 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $501 26h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $232 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $201 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $549 28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $501 29h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $201 47h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $256 47h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $201 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $224 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $206 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $49 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $421 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $401 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $99 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.28 · official $28.28 (match) · 28 history records