Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x5453…65ce sports 278 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,643 (+4%) realized +$12,820 · open −$4,177
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%133W / 134L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$857per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$3,055est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10,167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,042
7 days−$10,493
14 days−$7,342
30 days+$2,558
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$9,368
politics 6% −$3,062
world 6% +$1,590
other 5% −$3,703
crypto 2% +$1,347
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 39% -24.1%
≤30d 248 +2.9% -6.9% 48% 48% -8.4%
≤90d 255 +4.3% -5.6% 49% 49% -6.9%
all 267 +7.1% -3.1% 50% 49% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 49% -5.6%
10% -12.4% 49% -14.6%
15% -20.9% 46% -22.9%
20% -28.6% 41% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$1,017) neutral
Persistence
early +14% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$740 vs −$662 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$10,167
Realized+$12,820
Unrealized−$4,177
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses133 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$3,055
Open positions11
Markets (closed)267 / 278
History coverage139d
Avg bet$857
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 25¢ $9,508 $6,370 −$3,139 (-33%)
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $1,111 $1,149 +$38 (+3%)
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $1,064 $1,021 −$43 (-4%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $498 $326 −$172 (-35%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 8¢ 3¢ $877 $315 −$562 (-64%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 35¢ 36¢ $250 $254 +$4 (+1%)
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $250 $226 −$24 (-10%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $174 −$26 (-13%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $251 $167 −$84 (-34%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Ethan Quinn 12¢ 12¢ $135 $135 −$0 (-0%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $200 $31 −$169 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $660 −$469 -71%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $508 −$508 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $508 −$508 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,028 −$2,028 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $508 +$556 +109%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $507 +$402 +79%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $507 −$507 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $510 +$919 +180%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $508 −$508 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $506 −$506 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$574 +1116%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,017 +$1,267 +125%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $505 −$505 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $255 −$255 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 15 $358 −$358 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $419 −$419 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 15 $563 −$563 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $256 −$256 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $510 −$510 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 15 $1,019 −$1,019 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 15 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 15 $305 −$305 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $255 −$255 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,011 +$602 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $508 +$534 +105%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $350 −$171 -49%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $1,017 +$1,712 +168%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $505 +$264 +52%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1,014 +$838 +83%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $281 +$295 +105%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $16,496 −$2,267 -14%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1,017 +$1,256 +124%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $473 +$478 +101%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $200 +$75 +38%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $509 +$682 +134%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $150 +$209 +140%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $506 −$506 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $507 −$507 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $507 −$507 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $408 −$408 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2,537 −$1,069 -42%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $1,501 −$1,501 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $1,527 −$1,527 -100%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $304 +$262 +86%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $505 −$356 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 12¢ $138 36m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 35¢ $255 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $203 7h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 59¢ $191 7h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 61¢ $202 7h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 47¢ $508 8h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 45¢ $508 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,028 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $114 10h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $254 10h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $507 10h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $507 11h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $508 13h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $8 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $510 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $100 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $63 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $100 16h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 47¢ $508 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $51 19h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 41¢ $509 19h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $506 32h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 26¢ $179 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,166.51 · official $10,166.51 (match) · 741 history records