Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:35:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x544d…88c5
crypto · 206 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$231 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$231 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$231
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses88 / 117
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)205 / 206
History coverage37d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 205 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$49
14 days+$49
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 1 Liverpool FC? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 0 Liverpool FC? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 0 - 0 Liverpool FC? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 0 - 2 Liverpool FC? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 0 - 1 Liverpool FC? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Club Universitario de Deportes 2 - 2 CA Grau? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Lakers Lakers 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +106%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -78%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
England vs. Costa Rica: Draw at halftime? Jun 10 $27 −$27 -98%
Portugal vs. Chile: Draw at halftime? Jun 06 $22 +$28 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 17 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 17 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 17 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $19 −$8 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 17 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 17 $12 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 17 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 17 $6 −$3 -44%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? May 17 $6 +$1 +8%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $41 −$35 -86%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $107 −$17 -16%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $25 +$22 +88%
Will Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? May 17 $61 −$20 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 17 $10 −$4 -42%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: Draw at halftime? May 17 $14 −$9 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 16 $9 +$6 +65%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 16 $25 −$9 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 16 $17 +$2 +10%
Will CA Grau win on 2026-05-15? May 16 $14 +$3 +18%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CA Grau end in a draw? May 16 $30 −$18 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 16 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-15? May 16 $20 −$18 -90%
Exact Score: Club Universitario de Deportes 2 - 2 CA Grau? May 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $123 −$14 -11%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-05-15? May 16 $50 +$11 +22%
Will CD Palestino vs. CD La Serena end in a draw? May 16 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Córdoba CF vs. Albacete Balompié end in a draw? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CD Castellón vs. Cádiz CF end in a draw? May 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: AS Saint-Étienne 0 - 0 Rodez Aveyron Football? May 15 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club end in a draw? May 15 $18 +$10 +53%
Exact Score: AS Saint-Étienne 1 - 0 Rodez Aveyron Football? May 15 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw? May 15 $9 +$10 +112%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 1 Liverpool FC? May 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 0 - 2 Liverpool FC? May 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% −$98
crypto 34% −$91
sports 31% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 5h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $33 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 6h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 8h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $72 30h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $22 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 32h
England vs. Costa Rica: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 2d
Portugal vs. Chile: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 6d
Portugal vs. Chile: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +31.3% +18.8% 57% 57% +20.1%
≤30d 67 -12.7% -21.0% 46% 37% -14.4%
≤90d 205 -10.6% -19.1% 43% 34% -16.1%
all 205 -10.6% -19.1% 43% 34% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 34% -16.1%
10% -26.8% 26% -24.1%
15% -33.9% 20% -31.5%
20% -40.4% 14% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.81 · official $20.81 (match) · 658 history records