Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5449…af5c politics 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$4
sports 25% −$2
other 11% $0
crypto 11% $0
culture 6% $0
economics 6% +$1
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 50 -1.8% -11.1% 20% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage239d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $89 $0 -0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 09 $86 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $175 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $83 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $89 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 28 $88 $0 +0%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 12 $88 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $2 $0 -10%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 08 $82 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $87 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 25 $173 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $85 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 21? Jan 22 $87 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $88 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 14 $85 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 12 $87 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $2 $0 -20%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 07 $88 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $88 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 04 $87 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $177 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $1 $0 -50%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 30 $92 −$1 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 27 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $89 $0 +0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Dec 23 $89 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $180 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $91 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $88 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 08 $89 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 07 $183 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2? Dec 05 $88 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 27 $183 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $89 $0 +0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $88 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $89 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 11 $90 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 10 $92 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 08 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 05 $1 $0 +19%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 03 $92 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 02 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 11d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $86 20d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 41d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 45d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 108d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 108d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 110d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 111d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 111d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 113d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 114d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 114d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 116d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $88 118d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $88 121d
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY Yes 100¢ $88 136d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 136d
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 138d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 138d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 140d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 140d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 145d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $87 146d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $87 146d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $87 150d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $85 151d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $85 152d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $85 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.16 · official $1.16 (match) · 245 history records