Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x5449…992b
world · 195 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,861 +48%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,003 · open −$208
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,161
Realized+$3,003
Unrealized−$208
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses46 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions370
Markets (closed)58 / 195
History coverage5d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day736.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 370 History 58 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,853
7 days+$3,003
14 days+$3,003
30 days+$3,003
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $790 $847 +$56 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $290 $498 +$208 (+72%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $361 $406 +$45 (+13%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $251 $252 +$1 (+0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 76¢ 84¢ $217 $240 +$23 (+10%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 77¢ 81¢ $227 $240 +$13 (+6%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $173 $194 +$21 (+12%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $178 $180 +$2 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $193 $175 −$18 (-10%)
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? No 95¢ 100¢ $166 $174 +$9 (+5%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $131 $142 +$11 (+8%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $139 $141 +$2 (+2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $103 $122 +$19 (+19%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 90¢ 97¢ $107 $115 +$8 (+8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $111 $113 +$2 (+2%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 82¢ 98¢ $92 $111 +$19 (+20%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $101 $106 +$5 (+5%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 89¢ 95¢ $92 $98 +$6 (+6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $86 $95 +$9 (+11%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $85 $90 +$5 (+6%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 76¢ 92¢ $68 $82 +$14 (+21%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $78 $80 +$2 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $78 $74 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $13 −$7 -53%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +19%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -8%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $9 $0 -3%
Will Trump say "Job" 2+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $2 $0 +30%
Will Trump say "Football" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will Trump say "Georgia" 10+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +171%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $20 +$20 +102%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $41 +$18 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $652 +$2,712 +416%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1490+? Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $353 +$15 +4%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher Jun 11 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $270 +$82 +31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$9 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$5 +193%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -43%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $87 +$18 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $282 +$23 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $12 +$4 +32%
Will Michael Tubbs advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Pri Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 14m? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will David Fennell advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Pri Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +33%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +56%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $7 +$21 +323%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$21 +254%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +4%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +47%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$5 +192%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +16%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $15 +$2 +15%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$25 +991%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $17 +$4 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 -2%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $2 $0 +7%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 50% +$2,892
other 32% +$145
politics 13% −$222
crypto 2% −$24
tech 1% +$1
finance 1% −$8
culture 0% +$6
sports 0% −$2
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $1 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $1 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $1 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 4m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $1 4m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $1 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $1 5m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 6m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 6m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 7m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +46.6% +32.7% 79% 41% +106.3%
≤30d 58 +46.6% +32.7% 79% 41% +106.3%
≤90d 58 +46.6% +32.7% 79% 41% +106.3%
all 58 +46.6% +32.7% 79% 41% +106.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover736.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.7% 41% +106.3%
10% ← realistic here +20.0% 29% +86.5%
15% +8.4% 22% +68.5%
20% -2.2% 19% +52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,160.61 · official $8,158.42 (match) · 3500 history records