Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:54:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5448…2020 crypto 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-11%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%51W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$18
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% −$1
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -6.2% -15.2% 58% 54% -20.4%
≤30d 84 -6.2% -15.2% 58% 54% -20.4%
≤90d 94 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 50% -22.9%
all 94 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 50% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 50% -22.9%
10% -26.1% 40% -30.3%
15% -33.2% 32% -37.0%
20% -39.8% 19% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses51 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage81d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 212 history records