Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5447…127a other 94 markets active 1d ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$263 (+20%) realized +$271 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate58%39W / 28L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$51
14 days+$37
30 days+$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$150
other 25% −$94
sports 14% +$172
politics 5% +$1
tech 3% $0
finance 2% +$2
weather 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -15.4% -23.4% 50% 38% -28.1%
≤30d 67 -7.2% -16.0% 58% 43% +12.0%
≤90d 67 -7.2% -16.0% 58% 43% +12.0%
all 67 -7.2% -16.0% 58% 43% +12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 43% +12.0%
10% -24.1% 39% +1.3%
15% -31.4% 28% -8.5%
20% -38.1% 19% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized+$271
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses39 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions24
Markets (closed)67 / 94
History coverage16d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 85¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? Yes 26¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Grok 4.4 released by June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +43%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $56 +$96 +172%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$7 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 03 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 02 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 02 $15 +$5 +30%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 01 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$3 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $10 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND W BUY 45¢ $15 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 58¢ $10 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 3d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $1 4d
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $5 4d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 4d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 83¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.35 · official $184.35 · 201 history records