Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x5446…18f6 politics 621 markets active 20h ago coverage 1163d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$18,529 (+10%) realized +$18,386 · open +$143
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%253W / 233L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$18,467now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$103
14 days+$167
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% +$9,245
other 14% +$4,992
tech 4% +$2,001
crypto 3% +$1,816
world 3% +$206
economics 1% +$13
culture 1% −$199
sports 0% −$502
finance 0% +$541
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +12.0% +1.4% 100% 50% +6.3%
≤30d 77 +14.9% +4.0% 57% 45% -9.1%
≤90d 152 -7.7% -16.5% 49% 39% -23.3%
all 486 +9.2% -1.2% 52% 44% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 44% +0.9%
10% -10.6% 35% -8.7%
15% -19.3% 26% -17.6%
20% -27.2% 21% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$108 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1163d coverage
Net worth$18,467
Realized+$18,386
Unrealized+$143
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses253 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions135
Markets (closed)486 / 621
History coverage1163d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 135 History 486 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 66¢ 53¢ $790 $638 −$152 (-19%)
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? No 41¢ 48¢ $468 $552 +$85 (+18%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 63¢ 53¢ $633 $533 −$100 (-16%)
Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat? No 92¢ 96¢ $439 $457 +$18 (+4%)
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? No 83¢ 85¢ $436 $448 +$12 (+3%)
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 78¢ 90¢ $364 $421 +$57 (+16%)
Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? No 85¢ 64¢ $561 $420 −$142 (-25%)
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-02 House seat? Yes 87¢ 92¢ $392 $416 +$25 (+6%)
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $381 $403 +$22 (+6%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 81¢ 77¢ $394 $375 −$19 (-5%)
Will the Republican Party win the MN-08 House seat? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $346 $368 +$22 (+6%)
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? No 80¢ 77¢ $368 $356 −$12 (-3%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Diego County? No 53¢ 98¢ $171 $316 +$145 (+85%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 71¢ $220 $301 +$80 (+37%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 34¢ 38¢ $272 $300 +$28 (+10%)
Will Philip Sarnecki win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? No 94¢ 94¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 66¢ 76¢ $249 $283 +$34 (+14%)
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? No 80¢ 91¢ $241 $275 +$34 (+14%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 42¢ 23¢ $479 $260 −$220 (-46%)
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? Yes 64¢ 72¢ $229 $259 +$29 (+13%)
Mistral AI IPO before 2027? No 80¢ 84¢ $237 $251 +$14 (+6%)
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $236 $249 +$13 (+6%)
Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? No 90¢ 99¢ $224 $246 +$21 (+10%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-03 House seat? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $230 $234 +$4 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party win the OR-02 House seat? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $232 $233 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 16 $494 +$100 +20%
Will Samuel Wyatt be the Republican nominee for LA-05? Jun 14 $96 +$4 +4%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 13 $14 +$3 +23%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 11 $18 −$17 -94%
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Jun 11 $144 +$33 +23%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 10 $438 +$14 +3%
Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $35 +$9 +24%
Will "Arthur Miller's beath of a Salesman" win Best Revival of a Play Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Sonia Kacker advance from the CA-26 primary election? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Estêvão be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chi Charlie Nguyen advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 10 $58 +$36 +61%
Will Ralph Nwobi advance from the CA-07 primary election? Jun 10 $90 +$20 +22%
Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $56 +$9 +16%
Will Chris Mathys advance from the CA-22 Primary? Jun 10 $163 +$37 +22%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Jun 10 $4 +$14 +315%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $104 +$88 +85%
Will Michael Stansfield advance from the CA-06 primary election? Jun 09 $84 +$14 +16%
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Jun 09 $135 +$11 +8%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 09 $132 −$114 -86%
Will "Caissie Levy" win Best Leading Actress in a Musical at the 2026 Jun 08 $24 +$25 +103%
Will "Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show" win Best Revival of a M Jun 08 $64 +$5 +9%
Will "Will Harrison" win Best Leading Actor in a Play at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $62 +$7 +11%
Will "Mark Strong" win Best Leading Actor in a Play at the 2026 Tony A Jun 08 $64 +$5 +9%
Will "Soutra Gilmour" win Best Scenic Design of a Musical at the 2026 Jun 08 $52 +$3 +6%
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary Jun 06 $93 −$10 -11%
Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Jun 05 $165 +$19 +11%
Will Adam Sandler attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 05 $113 +$30 +26%
Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $79 −$20 -25%
Will Alexis Hill win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 04 $94 +$4 +5%
Will Chris Espinosa advance from the CA-26 primary election? Jun 04 $16 +$19 +122%
Will Linda Sánchez advance from the CA-41 primary election? Jun 04 $81 +$9 +11%
Will Jimmy Gomez advance from the CA-34 primary election? Jun 04 $1 $0 +18%
Will Calvin Lee advance from the CA-34 primary election? Jun 04 $151 +$152 +101%
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? Jun 03 $364 +$71 +19%
Will the Democratic Party win the MD-01 House seat? Jun 03 $33 +$9 +28%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele Jun 03 $264 +$106 +40%
Will Lindsay James be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02? Jun 03 $64 +$32 +49%
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 02 $298 +$108 +36%
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Jun 02 $112 +$46 +41%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 245m? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Howard Lutnick be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027 Jun 01 $83 +$66 +80%
Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Jun 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? Jun 01 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US federal government take a stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc.? SELL No 88¢ $11 20h
Will the US federal government take a stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc.? BUY No 74¢ $67 30h
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine? SELL Yes 87¢ $170 30h
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? BUY No 75¢ $99 46h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY Yes 16¢ $83 3d
Vanta IPO before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $40 3d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL No 82¢ $43 3d
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 4d
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 34¢ $20 4d
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 4d
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 4d
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 4d
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 4d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 4d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 5d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 5d
Tom Holland as Spider-Man? BUY No 33¢ $64 5d
Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? SELL No 98¢ $210 5d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY No 72¢ $93 5d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the SELL No 85¢ $93 5d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 49¢ $12 6d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 38¢ $27 6d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 36¢ $17 6d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 36¢ $22 6d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 36¢ $22 6d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 38¢ $27 6d
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine? SELL Yes 86¢ $67 6d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 40¢ $57 6d
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 6d
Will Samuel Wyatt be the Republican nominee for LA-05? SELL No 99¢ $63 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,466.67 · official $18,466.77 (match) · 3274 history records