Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:59:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5445…0db7 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$610 (-44%) realized −$564 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$417
7 days−$417
14 days−$417
30 days−$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$523
other 31% −$45
world 22% −$112
sports 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-61.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -78.9% -80.9% 0% 0% -83.8%
≤30d 2 -78.9% -80.9% 0% 0% -83.8%
≤90d 9 -57.5% -61.5% 22% 22% -74.1%
all 9 -57.5% -61.5% 22% 22% -74.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.5% 22% -74.1%
10% -65.2% 22% -76.6%
15% -68.6% 22% -78.9%
20% -71.7% 22% -80.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$103 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$408
Realized−$564
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)9 / 24
History coverage81d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $94 $87 −$6 (-7%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $40 $18 −$22 (-56%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 22 $100 −$74 -74%
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? Jun 22 $408 −$343 -84%
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? Apr 29 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 28 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Trump" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $102 −$100 -98%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 12 $100 +$61 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $111 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $26 1h
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? SELL Yes 7¢ $64 1h
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $96 1h
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 54d
Will Trump say "Trump" during King Charles visit? BUY Yes 55¢ $81 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 54d
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 54d
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? BUY Yes 44¢ $408 70d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 80d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $407.73 · official $407.73 (match) · 33 history records