trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +190.9% | +163.2% | 100% | 100% | +101.5% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +93.8% | +75.3% | 69% | 69% | +29.3% |
| ≤90d | 20 | +34.6% | +21.8% | 50% | 45% | -13.3% |
| all | 22 | +50.8% | +36.5% | 50% | 45% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +36.5% | 45% | -10.2% |
| 10% | +23.4% | 45% | -18.8% |
| 15% | +11.5% | 45% | -26.7% |
| 20% | +0.5% | 36% | -33.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 20¢ | $228 | $276 | +$48 (+21%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 65¢ | 68¢ | $130 | $137 | +$7 (+5%) |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | Yes | 55¢ | 55¢ | $110 | $109 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 56¢ | 48¢ | $112 | $95 | −$17 (-15%) |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 48¢ | 48¢ | $96 | $95 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 46¢ | 46¢ | $92 | $91 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? | Yes | 40¢ | 40¢ | $80 | $79 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? | Yes | 60¢ | 60¢ | $60 | $60 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $36 | $34 | −$2 (-6%) |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | $8 | $7 | −$1 (-15%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $72 | +$28 | +40% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $250 | +$120 | +48% |
| Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $55 | +$145 | +262% |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $58 | +$242 | +414% |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $26 | +$74 | +291% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 13 | $147 | −$144 | -98% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $146 | +$153 | +105% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $81 | −$81 | -99% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 13 | $53 | −$52 | -98% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $77 | +$122 | +158% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO | Jun 11 | $320 | −$318 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $110 | +$190 | +172% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $136 | +$174 | +129% |
| US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? | Apr 28 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | Apr 28 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $80 end of January? | Apr 28 | $32 | −$32 | -100% |
| Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be over 5.0%? | Apr 28 | $702 | −$702 | -100% |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? | Apr 28 | $12 | −$10 | -79% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | Apr 28 | $97 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? | Apr 28 | $0 | $0 | -50% |
| Cerebras IPO before 2027? | Mar 18 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Mar 02 | $16 | +$84 | +525% |