Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:12:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
54 0x5441…b527 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%42W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$10
crypto 10% +$1
politics 3% $0
tech 2% +$1
sports 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 55 +0.1% -9.5% 76% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses42 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage551d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $59 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $62 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Oct 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 04 $26 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 04 $33 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next Australian parliamen Apr 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 11 $68 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $5,021 −$10 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Feb 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Curry win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 21 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $69 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 61d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 100¢ $58 61d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 91d
Will BNB reach $900 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 92d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $60 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 121d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $58 122d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 149d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $59 150d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $5 180d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 181d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $56 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $62 211d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $9 240d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 242d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $41 242d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? BUY No 100¢ $32 273d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 300d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 301d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $38 302d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $13 332d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $26 334d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $33 334d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $24 366d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 393d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 394d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.09 · official $70.09 (match) · 119 history records