Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:07:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x543f…3145 crypto 1316 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$227 (+3%) realized +$227 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%783W / 533L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$4
14 days−$17
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$103
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 53% -8.1%
≤30d 322 -6.4% -15.3% 54% 54% -16.8%
≤90d 841 -17.9% -25.7% 46% 39% -19.1%
all 1316 -3.9% -13.1% 59% 54% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 54% -8.4%
10% -21.4% 47% -17.2%
15% -29.0% 37% -25.2%
20% -35.9% 21% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$227
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses783 / 533
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1316 / 1316
History coverage134d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1316 Trades
no open positions (237 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +414%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2687 history records