Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x543f…a475 sports 95 markets active 2d ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (110 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$55 (-18%) realized −$53 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%40W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day109.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$52
other 15% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (110 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 50% -27.6%
≤30d 87 -16.9% -24.8% 46% 46% -28.6%
≤90d 87 -16.9% -24.8% 46% 46% -28.6%
all 87 -16.9% -24.8% 46% 46% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 46% -28.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.0% 38% -35.5%
15% -38.6% 33% -41.7%
20% -44.6% 24% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses40 / 47
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)87 / 95
History coverage9d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day109.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-17%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 41¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 44¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -25%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $1 $0 +46%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 09 $1 +$1 +50%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $6 +$4 +74%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Ioannis Xilas Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $4 +$17 +421%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $8 −$8 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $6 +$6 +101%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $4 $0 +12%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $2 +$3 +134%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $3 +$3 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +47%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5) Jun 07 $1 $0 +14%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +75%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $7 −$7 -98%
ITF Casablanca: Marta Soriano Santiago vs Nina Vargova Jun 07 $1 $0 +15%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 07 $1 +$2 +206%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $7 −$7 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $10 +$8 +78%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Tatjana Maria vs Yuriko Miyazaki Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Joanna Garland Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Francisca Jorge vs Yeon Woo Ku Jun 07 $1 +$1 +105%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 07 $3 +$1 +44%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Talia Gibson vs Alina Charaeva Jun 07 $3 +$6 +209%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Sho Shimabukuro vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Siniakova/Townsend vs Danilina/Krunic Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Jodie Burrage vs Anna Blinkova Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 07 $1 $0 +16%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $1 $0 +38%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 +42%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 07 $1 +$1 +62%
Australia vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $1 +$1 +129%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +36%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $4 $0 +11%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +61%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $3 +$4 +123%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 +$2 +236%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.03 · official $19.03 (match) · 1012 history records