Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
54 0x543d…63a5 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$15 (+4%) realized +$48 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$18
other 1% $0
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +49.7% +35.4% 100% 100% +49.9%
≤30d 4 +49.7% +35.4% 100% 100% +49.9%
≤90d 7 +14.0% +3.1% 57% 57% -4.5%
all 7 +14.0% +3.1% 57% 57% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 57% -4.5%
10% -6.8% 43% -13.6%
15% -15.8% 29% -22.0%
20% -24.0% 14% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$31 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage89d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Washington Freedom 55¢ 78¢ $48 $68 +$20 (+43%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ 58¢ $58 $55 −$3 (-6%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins San Francisco Giants 34¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $75 +$83 +110%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $60 +$15 +26%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Aruzhan Sagandikova vs Anna Sedysheva Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Daria Kuznetsova vs Anna Bazderova Jun 15 $20 +$8 +42%
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5) Apr 17 $96 −$94 -98%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Washington Freedom 55¢ $49 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 34¢ $51 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 62¢ $59 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 47¢ $75 6h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $60 4d
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Aruzhan Sagandikova vs Anna Sedysheva BUY Aruzhan Sagandikova 82¢ $10 21d
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Daria Kuznetsova vs Anna Bazderova BUY Anna Bazderova 70¢ $20 21d
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5) BUY Raptors 47¢ $96 63d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 63d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 63d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 89d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 89d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 98¢ $2 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.67 · official $122.25 · 17 history records