Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:12:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x543b…4dd5 crypto 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$175 (+3%) realized +$176 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate86%67W / 11L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$176
14 days+$92
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$96
other 20% −$29
sports 5% +$103
tech 1% −$3
world 1% $0
politics 0% −$6
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +18.8% +7.5% 73% 73% +5.5%
≤30d 23 -3.4% -12.6% 70% 35% -5.6%
≤90d 36 -2.1% -11.4% 81% 22% -6.8%
all 78 -1.6% -11.0% 86% 15% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 15% -7.3%
10% -19.5% 6% -16.2%
15% -27.3% 6% -24.3%
20% -34.4% 4% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$22 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$176
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses67 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage567d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $101 +$65 +65%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $51 −$3 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $73 +$13 +17%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $125 +$71 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $197 −$72 -36%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $170 +$18 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $52 −$22 -42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $241 +$5 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$20 +20%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$50 +49%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $97 +$4 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $85 +$3 +3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 +$4 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $93 +$2 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $93 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 10 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 08 $187 −$2 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? May 26 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 21? May 22 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 16? May 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 12? May 13 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? May 09 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 4? May 05 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 25? Apr 30 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 20? Apr 22 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? Apr 19 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 10? Apr 13 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 31? Apr 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 31? Apr 09 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on March 27? Mar 29 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 18? Mar 24 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? Mar 18 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 5? Mar 09 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 3? Mar 05 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 1? Mar 03 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 28? Mar 01 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 25? Feb 28 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 10? Feb 25 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Feb 10 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 2? Feb 04 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 31? Feb 02 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 28? Jan 31 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 25? Jan 28 $88 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $89 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $48 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $73 47h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $125 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $125 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $197 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 26¢ $9 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $21 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $21 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $170 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 65¢ $240 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $200 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 62¢ $51 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $81 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 96¢ $97 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $88 13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $85 14d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $81 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 16d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $2 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $93 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $93 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $93 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 98¢ $91 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.40 · official $87.40 (match) · 187 history records