Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:34:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x543b…6c81 sports 699 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (176 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,208 (+0%) realized +$4,208 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%686W / 13L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,878per market
Trades / day176.2pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$7,652
other 9% +$119
world 1% +$7
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (176 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 262 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 699 +3.0% -6.8% 98% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 699 +3.0% -6.8% 98% 0% -9.2%
all 699 +3.0% -6.8% 98% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover176.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 0% -9.2%
10% -15.7% 0% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -23.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -31.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$2,042) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$0 · ×208.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11945.04 per $1 lost it wins $11945.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4,208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses686 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions0
Markets (closed)699 / 699
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$1,878
Trades / day176.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 699 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $55 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $1,722 +$2 +0%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $269 $0 +0%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $68 $0 +0%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $15,286 +$18 +0%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $14,976 +$15 +0%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 19 $118 $0 +0%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5) Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: Second half draw? Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $646 +$1 +0%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $678 +$1 +0%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $1,165 +$1 +0%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $4,923 +$5 +0%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10,584 +$10 +0%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $542 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5,671 +$6 +0%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $350 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $5,406 +$5 +0%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $8,500 +$8 +0%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $1,128 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $7,230 +$7 +0%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5) Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) Jun 19 $200 $0 +0%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti Jun 19 $283 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,326 +$1 +0%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $8,789 +$9 +0%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $2,459 +$2 +0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,503 +$2 +0%
Korea Republic to win the second half? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North A Jun 19 $128 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $374 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $14,497 +$15 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $2,498 +$3 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer Jun 18 $1,112 +$1 +0%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 18 $11,834 +$12 +0%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,446 +$1 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1. Jun 18 $98 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $7,922 +$8 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 100¢ $1,717 34m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 100¢ $5 34m
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $55 34m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 34m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 100¢ $40 34m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 99¢ $297 42m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 100¢ $14,989 42m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $208 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $13 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $6 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $55 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $55 1h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 100¢ $2 3h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 100¢ $27 3h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 100¢ $4 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $208 3h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 100¢ $114 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $2 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $0 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $10 3h
United States vs. Australia: Second half draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $15 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $400 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $10 3h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 100¢ $3 3h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $3 3h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 100¢ $281 4h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 100¢ $323 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.89 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records