Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
54 0x5439…5aba crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+10%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -16.0% -24.0% 53% 47% +1.3%
≤30d 17 -16.0% -24.0% 53% 47% +1.3%
≤90d 17 -16.0% -24.0% 53% 47% +1.3%
all 17 -16.0% -24.0% 53% 47% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.0% 47% +1.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 35% -8.4%
15% -37.9% 24% -17.3%
20% -44.0% 18% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$9 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$16 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records