Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:31:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5438…234b politics 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,760 (-1%) realized −$1,760 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate26%35W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,220per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$757now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$27
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$88
other 31% −$11
sports 16% −$1,661
culture 4% −$7
world 3% −$14
economics 2% −$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -3.8% -12.9% 6% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 64 -19.3% -27.0% 8% 3% -13.3%
all 135 -0.5% -10.0% 26% 10% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 10% -10.5%
10% -18.6% 10% -19.1%
15% -26.5% 10% -26.9%
20% -33.7% 9% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,668) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$39 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$757
Realized−$1,760
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses35 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,220
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $409 $409 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $348 $348 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,740 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $865 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,076 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $798 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,619 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,861 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,435 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,086 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,692 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,252 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,122 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $67 −$67 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $82 +$65 +79%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $946 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,190 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $6,132 −$7 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,072 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $2,628 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2,721 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,897 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,299 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $3,133 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,205 −$2 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,164 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,012 −$2 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $78 +$70 +90%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $3,269 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? May 19 $632 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 29 $1,452 −$1,452 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $3,736 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $1,282 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $2,532 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,289 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $6,420 −$6 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $242 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $409 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $417 4h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $417 5h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $221 27h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $221 28h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $928 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $929 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $908 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $909 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $864 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $865 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $915 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $916 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $809 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $810 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $797 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $798 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $993 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $995 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $982 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $983 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $348 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,158 11d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,160 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,096 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,098 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $926 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $928 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,144 13d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,146 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $757.21 · official $757.21 (match) · 436 history records