Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:56:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x5436…9aa3 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%20W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$5
sports 23% +$1
world 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 20 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 20 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 20 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses20 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage10d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? No 99¢ 100¢ $55 $55 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Paraguay (-3.5) Jun 26 $55 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $54 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-5.5) Jun 25 $54 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $54 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Panama 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $54 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $53 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $53 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $53 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 22 $53 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $52 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $52 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $52 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $51 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Spread: Paraguay (-3.5) BUY Australia 99¢ $55 21h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Germany? BUY No 99¢ $54 25h
Spread: Brazil (-5.5) BUY Scotland 99¢ $54 46h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Canada? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Exact Score: Panama 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $53 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $53 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Austria? BUY No 99¢ $53 4d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 IR Iran? BUY No 99¢ $53 5d
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? BUY No 98¢ $52 5d
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 0 Japan? SELL No 100¢ $52 5d
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 0 Japan? BUY No 98¢ $52 5d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 99¢ $52 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 99¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY No 99¢ $51 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY No 99¢ $51 8d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $51 8d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY No 98¢ $50 8d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY England 99¢ $50 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 9d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.28 · official $55.28 (match) · 41 history records