Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5432…0144 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$277 (-41%) realized −$252 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%7W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days−$192
14 days−$151
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$101
sports 8% −$13
world 6% −$32
crypto 5% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -41.2% -46.8% 8% 8% -43.4%
≤30d 63 -29.5% -36.2% 11% 11% -32.4%
≤90d 63 -29.5% -36.2% 11% 11% -32.4%
all 63 -29.5% -36.2% 11% 11% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 11% -32.4%
10% -42.3% 11% -38.9%
15% -47.9% 11% -44.8%
20% -53.0% 11% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$9 · ×5.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$252
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses7 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)63 / 70
History coverage9d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-58%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $10 +$61 +596%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 +$81 +784%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 +$81 +786%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? AND Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Englan BUY 2¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 6¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 31h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.75 · official $31.20 (match) · 117 history records