Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5430…1786 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% $0
crypto 34% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 20% -8.9%
≤30d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 20% -8.9%
≤90d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 20% -8.9%
all 5 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 20% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 20% -8.9%
10% -19.0% 20% -17.6%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin SELL Anhelina Kalinina 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 88¢ $1 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.72 · official $20.72 (match) · 14 history records