Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:45:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
54 0x542d…97d7 other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%23W / 34L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$2
politics 22% $0
world 22% +$1
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 3% +$1
weather 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.9% -7.8% 33% 17% -9.8%
≤30d 11 +1.6% -8.0% 36% 9% -9.1%
≤90d 11 +1.6% -8.0% 36% 9% -9.1%
all 57 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 5% -9.1%
10% -19.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses23 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage470d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $27 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $17 −$1 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $23 +$1 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $16 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $1 $0 -12%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 10 $28 $0 +0%
US-EU trade agreement by July 9? Jul 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Florian Lipowitz win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 26 $8 $0 +5%
Will Boca Juniors win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will Alessandro Bastoni be named the Champions League Final man of the May 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 25 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament? May 24 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 15? May 14 $8 $0 +2%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 14 $14 $0 -1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $25 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $34 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $8 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $24 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $0.70 (match) · 160 history records