Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x542a…0312 crypto 997 markets active 20h ago coverage 663d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,144 (-12%) realized −$6,144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%384W / 598L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$240
14 days−$1,683
30 days−$1,791
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$4,032
sports 15% −$1,243
politics 11% +$1,054
other 9% −$2,966
weather 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -30.7% -37.3% 30% 30% -50.8%
≤30d 321 -12.4% -20.7% 41% 40% -22.8%
≤90d 931 -11.7% -20.1% 40% 39% -20.1%
all 982 -11.9% -20.2% 39% 39% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 39% -22.6%
10% -27.9% 38% -30.0%
15% -34.8% 38% -36.7%
20% -41.2% 36% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$45 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

663d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses384 / 598
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions0
Markets (closed)982 / 997
History coverage663d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 982 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$27 -96%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $15 −$11 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $29 −$26 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $24 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -96%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $16 +$55 +342%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$3 -22%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $33 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$10 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$6 +74%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $19 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $9 +$10 +116%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$6 +83%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 10 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$11 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$12 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 08 $16 +$14 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 08 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 08 $27 +$29 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 08 $13 +$14 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 27¢ $14 20h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 27¢ $22 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $17 20h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY HOTU 45¢ $29 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $17 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 27¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner SELL fnatic 4¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner BUY fnatic 35¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner SELL Metizport 35¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner BUY Metizport 42¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro SELL illwill 79¢ $36 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro SELL illwill 76¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 17¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 17¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 43¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2098 history records