Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5429…1b95 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$51 (-16%) realized −$50 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$103
other 42% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-57.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -54.4% -58.7% 25% 25% -13.7%
≤30d 14 -53.0% -57.5% 29% 29% -27.5%
≤90d 14 -53.0% -57.5% 29% 29% -27.5%
all 14 -53.0% -57.5% 29% 29% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.5% 29% -27.5%
10% -61.5% 29% -34.5%
15% -65.2% 21% -40.8%
20% -68.7% 7% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage13d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$9 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 +$41 +40%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $52 −$11 -22%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$4 +69%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.47 · official $39.47 (match) · 24 history records