Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x5427…f3fb
crypto · 1036 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$140 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$139 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$14
Realized−$139
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses573 / 448
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1021 / 1036
Avg bet$2
Trades / day77.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 15 History 1021 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$26
14 days−$86
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? No 82¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will Trump say "Knicks" this week? Yes 89¢ 30¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1 $0 -11%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$136
sports 1% +$3
other 1% −$2
world 1% $0
politics 0% −$4
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $0 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $0 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -15.3% -23.4% 52% 34% -17.5%
≤30d 867 -11.0% -19.5% 55% 36% -16.7%
≤90d 1021 -11.2% -19.6% 56% 33% -15.6%
all 1021 -11.2% -19.6% 56% 33% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover77.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 33% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 21% -23.7%
15% -34.4% 14% -31.1%
20% -40.8% 9% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.22 · official $14.22 (match) · 3119 history records