Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5427…f168 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+6%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.0% -5.9% 45% 45% -12.0%
≤30d 11 +4.0% -5.9% 45% 45% -12.0%
≤90d 11 +4.0% -5.9% 45% 45% -12.0%
all 11 +4.0% -5.9% 45% 45% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 45% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 27% -20.4%
15% -23.1% 27% -28.1%
20% -30.7% 18% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $6 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records