Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:06:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x5425…4c65
weather · 173 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$85 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$83 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$220
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses112 / 56
Open positions5
Markets (closed)168 / 173
History coverage156d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 168 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$47
14 days+$64
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? No 74¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? No 69¢ 75¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? No 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4? No 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 8? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5? No 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? No 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 14? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 11? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 7? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 15? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 18? No 96¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $81 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $160 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$12 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 11? Jun 11 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $115 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $17 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $71 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $140 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $41 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $130 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 4? Jun 04 $55 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $65 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $30 −$10 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$83
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? SELL No 92¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? SELL No 90¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $90 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $100 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 69¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 79¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $106 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 98¢ $78 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 81¢ $25 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $40 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 74¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $15 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $49 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $50 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 77¢ $59 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $40 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 67¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $12 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -3.0% -12.2% 79% 21% -6.9%
≤30d 102 -10.3% -18.8% 73% 17% -10.3%
≤90d 168 -9.1% -17.7% 67% 21% -10.4%
all 168 -9.1% -17.7% 67% 21% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 21% -10.4%
10% -25.6% 10% -19.0%
15% -32.8% 7% -26.8%
20% -39.4% 5% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.85 · official $219.85 (match) · 550 history records