Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5423…8b45 crypto 680 markets active 0h ago coverage 271d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 271d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$294 (+8%) realized +$299 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%247W / 424L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$102
14 days+$343
30 days+$404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$328
crypto 42% −$2
other 2% +$44
politics 0% +$6
tech 0% +$12
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +6.8% -3.4% 46% 46% -16.5%
≤30d 125 +16.5% +5.4% 50% 50% +10.0%
≤90d 152 +15.5% +4.5% 51% 51% +10.0%
all 671 -1.3% -10.7% 37% 31% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 31% +0.8%
10% -19.2% 27% -8.8%
15% -27.0% 22% -17.7%
20% -34.2% 17% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$299
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses247 / 424
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions9
Markets (closed)671 / 680
History coverage271d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 671 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Team Liquid 44¢ 38¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-15%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 11¢ 16¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+45%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 36¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Team Liquid 17¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Team Liquid 20¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 17¢ 13¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 20¢ 11¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $19 +$12 +66%
Game 5: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 17 $7 $0 -2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $12 +$11 +89%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$17 +55%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $13 +$14 +104%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $11 +$11 +106%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $13 +$14 +101%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $6 +$12 +203%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$9 +152%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$9 +158%
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $40 +$25 +61%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$25 +101%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$9 +116%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$9 +114%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $22 +$31 +140%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5) Jun 14 $24 +$15 +63%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$10 +114%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $11 +$11 +99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$12 +238%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $11 +$11 +103%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $6 +$12 +220%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +172%
Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 13 $8 +$8 +100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $3 9m
Game 5: Any Player Penta Kill? BUY No 50¢ $7 16h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $3 16h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $3 16h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 42¢ $2 21h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 44¢ $3 21h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $2 22h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $8 25h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $8 25h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $3 28h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 65¢ $10 28h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $4 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $4 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $3 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 48¢ $4 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 48¢ $4 29h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 48¢ $5 29h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 64¢ $9 29h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 62¢ $11 30h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $3 31h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $7 31h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $5 31h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Team Liquid 6¢ $1 32h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Team Liquid 6¢ $1 33h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 20¢ $1 43h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 21¢ $1 44h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $3 44h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 20¢ $2 46h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 20¢ $2 46h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 20¢ $2 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.76 · official $60.28 (match) · 3500 history records