Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
54 0x5423…36ca politics 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+9%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$15
politics 43% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.3% -1.1% 75% 25% -0.8%
≤30d 5 +7.6% -2.6% 80% 20% -1.3%
≤90d 5 +7.6% -2.6% 80% 20% -1.3%
all 5 +7.6% -2.6% 80% 20% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 20% -1.3%
10% -12.0% 20% -10.7%
15% -20.5% 0% -19.4%
20% -28.3% 0% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×13.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×54.04 per $1 lost it wins $54.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage25d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $47 +$13 +29%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $34 +$3 +8%
Will Paloma Valencia win less than 10% of votes in the first round of Jun 21 $34 $0 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco Jun 04 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records