Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5422…a780 other 298 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$51,906 (-17%) realized −$52,234 · open +$328
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%116W / 176L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,007per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$995now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days+$83
14 days+$83
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$21,614
other 49% −$71,963
world 1% −$1,234
crypto 0% +$20
economics 0% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -13.3% -21.6% 40% 40% -4.5%
≤30d 5 -13.3% -21.6% 40% 40% -4.5%
≤90d 8 -30.1% -36.8% 38% 38% -6.6%
all 292 -15.4% -23.4% 40% 39% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.4% 39% -25.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.7% 37% -32.3%
15% -37.4% 35% -38.8%
20% -43.6% 29% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$842) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$792 vs −$818 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$995
Realized−$52,234
Unrealized+$328
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses116 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)292 / 298
History coverage240d
Avg bet$1,007
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 51¢ 80¢ $455 $716 +$261 (+57%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Yes 12¢ 24¢ $54 $110 +$56 (+104%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 16¢ 40¢ $32 $81 +$49 (+153%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $66 $48 −$18 (-27%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $50 −$19 -38%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $118 −$44 -37%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $925 +$294 +32%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $108 +$45 +41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $300 −$192 -64%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $4 −$4 -98%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Petra Marcinko May 03 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14? Dec 14 $7 +$14 +197%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13? Dec 14 $10 +$10 +104%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12? Dec 12 $40 +$24 +59%
Red Wings vs. Flames: O/U 6.5 Dec 12 $22 +$28 +122%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13? Dec 11 $38 −$9 -23%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12? Dec 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9? Dec 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Panthers vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 Dec 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11? Dec 10 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11? Dec 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14? Dec 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $130 −$130 -100%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 10 $150 +$71 +47%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Atalanta BC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Dec 09 $90 −$70 -78%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $200 −$110 -55%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Dec 09 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $250 −$115 -46%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $311 −$311 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8? Dec 07 $240 +$40 +17%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 05 $402 −$402 -100%
Will Ehime FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $82 +$18 +22%
Will San Diego FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $79 −$79 -100%
Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $45 +$34 +75%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $842 −$842 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $847 −$5 -0%
Will Manchester City vs. Leeds United end in a draw? Nov 29 $200 −$182 -91%
Will Brentford vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Nov 29 $200 −$163 -81%
Will Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw? Nov 29 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $811 −$476 -59%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $307 −$62 -20%
Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $112 +$175 +156%
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $330 +$107 +32%
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $71 −$71 -100%
Will FK Akron Tolyatti win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $61 −$7 -12%
Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $204 −$204 -100%
Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Vitória SC win on 2025-11-28? Nov 29 $429 +$366 +85%
Boise State vs. Utah State Nov 29 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Renofa Yamaguchi FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 29 $218 −$218 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $74 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $55 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $68 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $118 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $200 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $255 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,219 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $772 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $153 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $108 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 22¢ $108 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $148 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 4d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 42d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 43d
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Petra Marcinko BUY Belinda Bencic 79¢ $4 56d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13? SELL Yes 28¢ $29 188d
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 188d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 189d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 189d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 189d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 189d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $994.99 · official $973.74 · 2116 history records