Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x5420…297a other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+0%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$15
politics 34% −$16
sports 8% +$90
economics 5% −$2
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 95 +3.2% -6.6% 6% 6% -9.4%
all 116 +3.3% -6.5% 11% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 11% -9.3%
10% -15.5% 9% -18.0%
15% -23.7% 9% -25.9%
20% -31.1% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1 · ×10.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage119d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $262 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $272 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $40 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $243 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $290 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $694 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $265 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $461 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $250 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $225 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $214 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $292 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $246 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $280 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $467 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $235 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $241 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $232 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $270 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $439 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $251 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $265 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $258 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $207 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $242 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $207 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $215 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $271 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $224 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $255 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 21h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 24h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 30h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 30h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $48 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $48 4d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 4d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 13d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 16d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 18d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 25d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 25d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 25d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 30d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $243 30d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $229 31d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 31d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $290 32d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $290 32d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $286 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.94 · official $113.94 (match) · 353 history records