Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x541e…b57a sports 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$215 (+7%) realized +$168 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%37W / 48L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$170
7 days+$108
14 days+$217
30 days+$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% −$4
sports 33% +$355
other 13% −$37
world 2% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -27.9% -34.7% 39% 36% -4.3%
≤30d 85 -12.3% -20.6% 44% 39% -2.1%
≤90d 85 -12.3% -20.6% 44% 39% -2.1%
all 85 -12.3% -20.6% 44% 39% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 39% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 32% -11.4%
15% -35.1% 28% -20.0%
20% -41.5% 24% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$18 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$385
Realized+$168
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses37 / 48
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage12d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Yes 83¢ 94¢ $338 $385 +$47 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $44 +$75 +172%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 +$7 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$22 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $151 +$29 +19%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $14 +$5 +36%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $138 +$237 +173%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $91 −$83 -92%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$3 +2%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 +$9 +72%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $66 +$64 +97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 −$16 -89%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$5 +24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $21 −$20 -92%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 13 $6 −$1 -15%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 +$18 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$4 +25%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$64 +178%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $7 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$13 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $79 +$36 +45%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $11 −$10 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $195 +$32 +16%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $16 +$7 +41%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $46 −$46 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $35 −$34 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata end in a draw? Jun 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2026-06-06? Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Cerro Largo FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $31 41m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $56 41m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $35 42m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 45m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 46m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 82¢ $58 47m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 49m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 50m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 74¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 73¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $44 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $32 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $19 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $0 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $180 17h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $87 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 80¢ $65 25h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 75¢ $19 27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 73¢ $14 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 31h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $116 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $71 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.36 · official $385.36 (match) · 280 history records