Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5419…53e3 weather 589 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$209 (-10%) realized −$205 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%191W / 370L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$3
14 days−$177
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$105
weather 25% −$142
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -26.1% -33.2% 40% 40% -7.5%
≤30d 543 -9.1% -17.8% 35% 35% -21.1%
≤90d 561 -12.0% -20.4% 34% 34% -22.2%
all 561 -12.0% -20.4% 34% 34% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 34% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 33% -29.7%
15% -35.0% 32% -36.5%
20% -41.3% 32% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$205
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses191 / 370
Open positions28
Markets (closed)561 / 589
History coverage30d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 561 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 370 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$7 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.93 · official $222.93 (match) · 1025 history records