Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:58:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x5416…60ee
sports · 54 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$1,784 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,794 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49
Realized−$1,794
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 32
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage637d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$88
14 days−$22
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Spirit 23¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Vitality 14¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $720 $0 −$720 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 46¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) G2 45¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 FUT Esports 49¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A FURIA 38¢ 0¢ $114 $0 −$114 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 22¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $560 $0 −$560 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 5? No 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $149 $0 −$149 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? No 18¢ 0¢ $392 $0 −$392 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs FURIA 33¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? No 5¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Astralis 24¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO5) Vitality 47¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs Team Falcons 40¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 4? No 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Gaimin Gladiators win The International 2024? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B PARIVISION 13¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 53¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BetBoom Team 36¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $18 +$33 +180%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $149 +$269 +180%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $295 −$292 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $100 −$98 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $27 −$27 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $118 +$94 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 17 $110 +$63 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 16 $55 +$55 +100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $154 +$528 +344%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $148 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 23 $119 −$119 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 23 $114 −$114 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 23 $116 +$116 +100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 22 $108 +$8 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 16 $392 −$392 -100%
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at t Mar 14 $149 −$149 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo Mar 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pl Mar 14 $100 +$78 +78%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Mar 13 $46 −$46 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 09 $160 −$14 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 9? Mar 08 $60 +$50 +83%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $34 +$34 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 7? Mar 06 $11 +$18 +164%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 5? Mar 04 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 4? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 03 $84 +$8 +9%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $30 $0 -1%
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 12 $560 −$560 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? Feb 04 $1,184 −$1,184 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 18 $500 +$47 +9%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $67 +$338 +502%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 29 $500 +$854 +171%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Dec 14 $35 +$65 +186%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) Dec 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 11 $368 +$415 +113%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $400 +$368 +92%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 07 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO5) Nov 09 $44 −$44 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% −$1,166
sports 38% −$151
crypto 7% −$311
world 2% −$14
culture 2% −$149
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 35¢ $18 12h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FURIA 35¢ $149 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 46¢ $7 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 46¢ $85 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 54¢ $203 39h
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 36¢ $100 6d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $27 8d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $118 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 14d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $50 27d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 13¢ $21 27d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $51 27d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $51 28d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $110 28d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $109 28d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $46 28d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $1 28d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $1 28d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $1 28d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $6 28d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 22¢ $154 29d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY FURIA 26¢ $102 29d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY Vitality 14¢ $51 32d
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? BUY Yes 74¢ $148 45d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr BUY PARIVISION 13¢ $119 82d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro BUY FURIA 38¢ $114 82d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A BUY FURIA 50¢ $116 83d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? SELL Yes 14¢ $116 83d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY Yes 13¢ $108 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +40.1% +26.8% 50% 50% -23.9%
≤30d 14 +10.1% -0.4% 43% 43% +7.1%
≤90d 20 -7.6% -16.4% 40% 35% -11.8%
all 53 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 34% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 34% -28.7%
10% -19.2% 34% -35.6%
15% -27.0% 34% -41.8%
20% -34.2% 34% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.43 · official $49.43 (match) · 117 history records