Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5415…2159 sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$201 · open −$176
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate92%112W / 10L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$17
other 14% −$39
economics 13% −$82
politics 10% +$6
finance 9% $0
world 3% −$9
crypto 3% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +8.7% -1.7% 83% 8% -9.0%
≤30d 19 +6.2% -3.9% 89% 11% -8.9%
≤90d 24 +7.0% -3.2% 92% 21% -6.4%
all 122 -0.8% -10.3% 92% 9% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 9% -8.1%
10% -18.8% 1% -16.9%
15% -26.7% 1% -25.0%
20% -33.9% 1% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$499
Realized+$201
Unrealized−$176
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses112 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)122 / 137
History coverage585d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 84¢ 81¢ $153 $148 −$5 (-3%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 94¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $186 $77 −$109 (-58%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 21¢ $56 $23 −$33 (-59%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 79¢ 80¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $15 $8 −$7 (-44%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Yes $25 $1 −$24 (-97%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $96 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $1 +$2 +226%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $2 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 28 $1 −$1 -53%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $67 $0 +0%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $98 $0 +0%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $98 $0 +0%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $98 $0 +0%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $97 +$1 +1%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $97 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $97 $0 +0%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 15 $17 +$2 +11%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $65 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $65 $0 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $65 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $65 $0 +0%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $64 +$1 +1%
Canada recession before 2027? May 29 $238 +$26 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? May 01 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 28 $114 +$11 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Apr 20 $72 +$11 +15%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $52 +$1 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 01 $16 −$9 -59%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 26 $76 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 25? Feb 26 $37 −$37 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 24? Feb 24 $6 −$1 -17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 23? Feb 23 $16 +$2 +12%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 20 $134 +$25 +19%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 20? Feb 20 $4 $0 +10%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Feb 20 $34 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 19? Feb 19 $7 +$1 +11%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Feb 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $57 +$6 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 18? Feb 18 $21 +$2 +11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Feb 17 $22 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $58 +$6 +11%
Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 13 $68 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 10? Feb 11 $73 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Feb 10 $73 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Feb 10 $73 $0 +0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 10 $72 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Feb 10 $5 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Feb 09 $99 $0 +0%
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis Feb 09 $122 $0 +0%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Alabama A&M Bulldogs vs. Southern Jaguars: O/U 144.5 Feb 08 $26 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 6? Feb 06 $80 +$8 +10%
Will the ECB announce no change at the February 2026 meeting? Feb 05 $152 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 99¢ $96 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on SELL $0 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY $1 30h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $67 45h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $98 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $98 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $98 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $97 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $97 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $97 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL Yes $25 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY $1 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY $1 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-2 BUY $1 12d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY $10 13d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $19 14d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $66 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $65 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $498.76 · official $498.73 (match) · 973 history records