Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5415…6197 crypto 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (160 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate86%124W / 21L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day160.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (160 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -4.9% -14.0% 86% 49% -6.5%
≤30d 145 -4.9% -14.0% 86% 49% -6.5%
≤90d 145 -4.9% -14.0% 86% 49% -6.5%
all 145 -4.9% -14.0% 86% 49% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover160.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 49% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 1% -15.5%
15% -29.7% 1% -23.6%
20% -36.6% 1% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses124 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)145 / 145
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day160.0
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 145 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $127 +$20 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $127 +$18 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $127 +$21 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $127 +$24 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $227 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $32 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $32 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $221 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $32 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $32 +$4 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $32 +$3 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $222 +$23 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $222 +$23 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $32 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $143 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $123 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $144 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $122 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $148 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $122 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $146 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $239 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $222 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 283 history records