Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5413…49dd crypto 910 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate73%664W / 246L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +6.3% -3.8% 83% 34% -5.9%
≤30d 542 -0.0% -9.6% 74% 35% -11.0%
≤90d 904 +0.1% -9.4% 73% 34% -10.7%
all 910 -0.0% -9.5% 73% 34% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 34% -10.6%
10% -18.2% 16% -19.2%
15% -26.1% 6% -27.0%
20% -33.3% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses664 / 246
Open positions0
Markets (closed)910 / 910
History coverage122d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 910 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3023 history records