Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

54 0x5413…161d other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$72 (+46%) realized +$73 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip

Net edge+37%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$39per market

Trades / day4.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+42.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+57.8%	+42.8%	50%	50%	+103.4%
≤30d	2	+57.8%	+42.8%	50%	50%	+103.4%
≤90d	2	+57.8%	+42.8%	50%	50%	+103.4%
all	2	+57.8%	+42.8%	50%	50%	+103.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+42.8%	50%	+103.4%
10%	+29.1%	50%	+83.9%
15%	+16.7%	50%	+66.1%
20%	+5.2%	50%	+49.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +125% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +58% · $-wt +125% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$71 vs −$1 · ×58.12 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×58.12 per $1 lost it wins $58.12

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized+$73

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$39

Trades / day4.7

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$1	-24%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$51	+$71	+140%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	SELL Up	59¢	$4	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$5	25m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$51	1h
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$51	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.03 · official $99.04 (match) · 6 history records