Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:34:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5410…5b8b other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$76 (-15%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +15.7% +4.7% 33% 33% -13.2%
≤30d 6 +15.7% +4.7% 33% 33% -13.2%
≤90d 6 +15.7% +4.7% 33% 33% -13.2%
all 6 +15.7% +4.7% 33% 33% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 33% -13.2%
10% -5.3% 33% -21.5%
15% -14.5% 17% -29.1%
20% -22.9% 17% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$24 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage8d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $24 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $55 +$73 +132%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $251 −$93 -37%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$5 +26%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 20 $147 −$4 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 20 $1 $0 -16%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 25m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 34¢ $129 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $55 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $55 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $87 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $87 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $25 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 2¢ $24 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 4h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $16 4h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $139 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 82¢ $144 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 83¢ $147 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY 23¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.41 · official $23.41 (match) · 18 history records